Territorial control and vote choice in Colombia A multilevel approach
Keywords:
territorial control, vote choice, Colombia, multilevel approachAbstract
This paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between violent contexts of territorial control and vote choice by drawing on insights from literature on the contextual determinants of political behavior and civil wars. It tests the hypothesis that individuals living in a violent context tend to behave in line with the strategic objectives and ideological orientations proclaimed by the armed actor dominating the area. Using a national survey conducted in Colombia in 2005, and contextual level data, this paper employs hierarchical regression models to test this hypothesis. Results suggest that on moving from areas dominated by the colombian state to regions controlled by right-wing paramilitary groups, individuals were more likely to support a presidential candidate on the right of the ideological spectrum. However, this relationship appears to be conditioned by partisanship, as minority party sympathizers’ vote choices are the most affected by changes in violent contexts.References
Jones, Bobby, Daniel S. Nagin and Kathryn Roeder (2001), “A sas Procedure Based on Mixture models for Estimating Developmental Trajectories”, Sociological Methods and Research, 29(3), pp. 374-93.
Kalyvas, Stathis (2006), The Logic of Violence in Civil War, New York, Cambridge University Press.
Nagin, Daniel S. (2005), Group-Based Modeling of Development, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
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