Candidates Murdered in Mexico: Criminal or Electoral violence?
Keywords:
elections, political assassinations, electoral violence, criminal organizationsAbstract
The 2018 electoral process in México was not only the largest electoral process in Mexico’s history by the number of positions to be filled, but also it was the most violent in recent history. Since the beginning of the electoral campaigns until the election day, 48 candidates were assassinated. What explains this unprecedented wave of political assassinations? Are they caused by a
close electoral competition or by criminal violence? By using an original database in which we recorded the number of candidates assassinated by municipality, we tested both competing theories and found that the killings are not related to competitive elections, but instead they are linked to
the presence of criminal organizations and to the level of criminal violence in each municipality. In some states, such as Puebla and Guerrero, statistical evidence also suggests that the murdered candidates were targeted by criminal organizations.
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