Economía, seguridad y corrupción en la elección presidencial de 2018. Temas de campaña y preferencias electorales en México

Melina Altamirano Hernández; Sandra Ley Gutierrez

Melina Altamirano Hernández El Colegio de México
Sandra Ley Gutierrez Assistant Professor, Political Studies Division, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)

Palabras clave: voto temático, elecciones, voto económico, seguridad, corrupción

Resumen

Durante la administración de Enrique Peña Nieto y la campaña presidencial de 2018 resaltaron tres problemas entre el electorado mexicano: un limitado crecimiento económico, un aumento sostenido de la violencia y múltiples escándalos de corrupción. Con base en el Estudio Nacional Electoral de México (CIDE-CSES) 2018, analizamos los efectos simultáneos de las evaluaciones individuales respecto a la economía, la violencia y la corrupción sobre las preferencias electorales. Nuestros hallazgos indican la prevalencia de un voto económico retrospectivo que coexiste con un voto de seguridad. Las evaluaciones negativas de la seguridad favorecieron al candidato puntero, aunque sin un claro respaldo de las víctimas. A pesar de su centralidad en la campaña electoral, el tema de la corrupción no afectó sustantivamente las preferencias del votante.

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