Predicciones ciudadanas de las elecciones presidenciales mexicanas, 2000-2024

Andreas Murr

Andreas Murr Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas A.C. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9536-0118

Palabras clave: predicciones ciudadanas, transición democrática, predicción electoral, encuestas de opinión pública, socialización política

Resumen

La predicción científica de elecciones tiene una tradición larga y creciente en democracias bien establecidas; sin embargo, no ha progresado lo suficiente en América Latina. Para abonar a esto, analizamos las predicciones ciudadanas de las elecciones presidenciales mexicanas de 2000 a 2024. Desarrollamos nuevas herramientas estadísticas para estudiar si las predicciones ciudadanas revelan mejor los resultados electorales que el azar y que las encuestas de intención de voto. A partir de 55 encuestas, encontramos que los ciudadanos se vuelven mejores con el tiempo en predecir resultados electorales. Mientras que los ciudadanos, al inicio de la democracia en México, en el año 2000, predecían peor que el azar, en elecciones presidenciales recientes las han predicho de manera correcta. En la actualidad, dichas predicciones están a la par de las encuestas de intención de voto. A pesar de que los ciudadanos son ahora mejores que el azar al predecir el porcentaje de votos, siguen teniendo peores resultados que las encuestas de intención de voto. Para entender por qué, analizamos el sesgo y la varianza de las predicciones ciudadanas por primera vez en México. Encontramos que las principales razones por las que sus predicciones electorales han empeorado son la socialización bajo un régimen de partido único, la falta de experiencia con elecciones libres y justas, y las preocupaciones infundadas sobre si las elecciones son limpias o no.

Biografía del autor/a

Andreas Murr, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas A.C.

Andreas Erwin Murr es profesor investigador titular en la División de Estudios Políticos del Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE). Profesor asociado, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick.

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